Thunder vs. Pacers Game 7 Preview

Game 7. Everything comes down to this. Anything can happen.

Sunday night in OKC, the Thunder (10–2 at home this postseason) prepare to host the Pacers in a winner-take-all finale. Oklahoma City is chasing its first NBA championship in franchise history. Indiana is looking to make history of its own with the franchise’s first-ever title.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

What’s at Stake

Oklahoma City Thunder (3–3)
The Thunder have been nearly untouchable at home, with a 10–2 record at Paycom Center and a +20.6 point differential per game on their home floor. They’ve played with poise, energy, and focus, especially when the crowd is behind them.

Indiana Pacers (3–3)
Indiana forced Game 7 with a decisive 108–91 win in Game 6. They forced 21 turnovers, overwhelmed OKC in transition, and saw big production from their bench. Obi Toppin had 20 off the pine, and the Pacers looked like the deeper, fresher team.

Key Storylines

Turnover Battle
The Thunder have built their identity around forcing mistakes, averaging over 18 opponent turnovers per game this postseason. The Pacers, meanwhile, have gone 10–1 in playoff games where they commit 13 or fewer turnovers. The team that wins the turnover column may win the championship.

Home Court Matters
Historically, home teams are 15–4 in NBA Finals Game 7s. Oklahoma City’s home crowd has been loud, relentless, and a clear advantage. Add in the Thunder’s high-percentage shooting at home — especially from beyond the arc — and that edge becomes even more dangerous.

Star Power vs. Depth
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player in this series, with four 30-point games and multiple takeover moments. But he also struggled in Game 6, turning the ball over eight times. The Pacers don’t have one dominant scorer, but they’ve had eight players average double figures during the Finals, including consistent play from Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell.

X-Factors

• Tyrese Haliburton’s Health
  Still dealing with a calf injury, Haliburton’s ability to facilitate and move off screens could make or break Indiana’s offensive rhythm.

• Interior Defense
  Myles Turner has held his own in the paint, but Oklahoma City’s bigs — Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — have protected the rim and rebounded at a high level. Controlling the glass and the lane will be critical.

• Bench Contributions
  Caruso, Dort, and Wiggins have stepped up all postseason for the Thunder. If the Pacers’ second unit doesn’t respond — like they did in Game 6 — they could get buried early.

• Tempo Control
  The Thunder prefer a half-court pace. The Pacers are at their best in transition. Whichever team sets the rhythm early will control the tone of the night.

Final Prediction: Thunder Close It Out

Oklahoma City has been building toward this moment all year. Their defense is locked in. Their stars have been steady. And their crowd is ready to erupt.

Indiana deserves full credit for pushing this series to the limit. They’ve played with heart and depth. But in Game 7, with nerves high and execution critical, the edge goes to the home team with the better defense and best player.

Prediction: Thunder win Game 7 by 6 to 8 points and raise the trophy in front of a roaring OKC crowd.